Brentview News & Insights

In the third quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 finally broadened beyond the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia). We have been anticipating this wider participation for nearly three quarters. More than 60% of the S&P 500 components beat the index for the period compared to only 25% in the first half of 2024. Also, eight of the eleven industry sectors outperformed the index. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index was up 9.1% versus 5.5% for the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.

In the second quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 appreciated by 4.2%. For the same period, the Nasdaq rose by 8.3%. The industries leading the second quarter were semiconductor stocks, particularly in the artificial intelligence segment. Ultimately only three of the eleven economic sectors exceeded the overall S&P 500 for the quarter. As seen below in Table 1 the Information technology sector rose by 13.8% followed by the Communication Services sector 9.4% advancement and followed by Utilities, which increased by 4.4%.

In the first quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 appreciated by 10.56%, its best return since Q1 of 2019. The equity market was fueled by the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone in December and was also coupled with excitement around Artificial Intelligence technology. Nvidia became the poster child for “AI” as its earnings exploded, and market capitalization cracked $2 trillion. Overall, it seems that equity investors were playing “catch up”, especially since several market strategists kept hiking their year-end S&P 500 price targets. As the quarter progressed, hopes for an interest rate cut kept getting delayed. Instead, investors began to focus on the resilient economy and recession talk receded. In our previous commentary, Brentview called for a broadening out of the market. In 2023 investors focused on “The Magnificent 7”, a select list of companies that captured a substantial portion of last year’s equity returns. In 2024, however, the “Magnificent 7” has been reduced to the “Magnificent 4”. Tesla and Apple posted negative returns for the 1st quarter while Alphabet (Google) trailed the market.

The fourth quarter of 2023 saw the S&P 500 index climb 11.68% after the market experienced a 10% correction in the month of October. The market broadened out as the equally weighted S&P 500 rose almost identically to the market capitalization weighted S&P 500. The top & bottom three sectors of the S&P 500 are shown in Table 1 based on quarterly performance. The sector winners were real estate, technology, and financials. The laggards were energy, consumer staples, and health care. Energy was the only sector in the fourth quarter to post a negative return during the quarter.

August and September have historically been the worst performing months for markets and this year was no different. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and NASDAQ indexes declined 3.3%, 2.1%, and 3.9% respectively in the 3rd quarter of 2023. The backdrop for the 3rd quarter was highlighted by the 10-year Treasury trading at its highest yield since 2007. Oil prices also jumped 29% as production cuts by OPEC+ resulted in lower inventory levels. Adding to the tensions, a government shutdown was averted at the last hour while the US dollar quietly strengthened. The dollar’s 17 straight weeks of advancement marked the second longest streak in over 50 years.

The stock market measured by the S&P 500 was up 8.3% for the 2nd quarter. This return now represents three straight positive quarters in a row. The Nasdaq 100 posted its best first half since 1983, returning a positive 31.7%. The market returns have defied expectations with some prominent market strategists calling for a 20% market correction. Over the past year, investors have shaken off rising interest rates, an inverted yield curve, and persistent calls for a recession. Even with the S&P 500 valuations near 19x earnings, equity investors generally remain unfazed.

The first quarter of 2023 equity returns surprised most investors as the stock market shook off a regional banking crisis and rising interest rates. The S&P 500 index posted solid returns of over 7% which followed another strong quarter in Q4 of 2022. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed nearly 17% during the quarter. The S&P 500 posted its best mark since January 2019 and the Nasdaq Composite had its best start to a year since 2001.

There is no shortage of research on the benefits of dividend investing. The most tangible benefit is the consistent occurring cashflow that comes into a portfolio as dividends are paid. Investors not only benefit from compounding over time, but their portfolio may benefit from lessened swings in value due to the consistent inflow of dividend payments1.

There is no shortage of research on the benefits of dividend investing. The most tangible benefit is the consistent occurring cashflow that comes into a portfolio as dividends are paid. Investors not only benefit from compounding over time, but their portfolio may benefit from lessened swings in value due to the consistent inflow of dividend payments1.

The Brentview Dividend Growth strategy ended the year on a strong note, outperforming the S&P 500 for both the fourth quarter as well as for the full calendar year. The S&P 500 ended 2022 with a robust 7.6% return in the quarter, which also lessened the impact from a -18.1% return for the full year. As far as styles were concerned, Large Cap Value handily beat Large Cap Growth for both the fourth quarter and the full calendar year of 2022. It’s important to note that we maintained a portfolio beta of 0.80 for most of the year. Beta is a measure of risk which approximates the relative “sensitivity” to price changes of a corresponding index, in our case, the S&P 500 where the beta is 1. Sometimes cited as the “low beta anomaly”, maximizing beta is not necessarily required to outperform the market. While a low beta portfolio position contributed to the balance of 2022, when markets were under pressure, it did not detract from our 4th quarter relative returns when markets rebounded strongly.